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World Cup Group Analysis

Listed most-to-least difficult, as decided by your host.  We go from 8 to 1, when we get to ...

1. The Group of Death: Group E (coming soon)

2. The Cabal of Life Support:  Group G

3. The Jury of Chronic Affliction:  Group D

4. The Panel of Mild Discomfort:  Group H

5. The Club of Common Cold:  Group C

6. The Fraternity of Inconclusive Diagnosis:  Group B

7. The Guild of Health:  Group F

8. The Tribe of Life:  Group A


Ten Matches to Watch:  Europe

Barcelona will welcome Valencis to the Nou Camp on Sunday, but Zlatan Ibrahimovic (r) will miss the match with a suspension.  (Photo: ZumaPress)

Barcelona will welcome Valencis to the Nou Camp on Sunday, but Zlatan Ibrahimovic (r) will miss the match with a suspension. (Photo: ZumaPress)

This week's list gets a little crowded as WSDigest (which, confusingly, is being used in the second person here) tips a hat to three leagues who open their seasons this week.  Let's all welcome soccer back to (amongst other places) Russia, Sweden and Finland.

In order to feature matches from those league, some good fixtures failed to make this week's list, most regrettably Bayer Leverkusen's Sunday match with Hamburger, with nothing but points separating those two clubs on the Bundesliga table.

I'd like to tell you more about that match, but I'm contractually obligated to write more about matches on the list than those off.  It's a three-party contract between Mr.s Me, Myself, and I.

10.  Kalmer versus IFK Göteberg, Sunday, Swedish Allsvenskan - Göteberg lost last season's title in the last match, letting AIK turn around a 0-1 halftime deficit in the match, a five point deficit with three matches left to win the league.  Despite that disappointment, Göteburg is considered the 2010 Alsvenskan favorite, led by striker Tobias Hysén, last season's leading scorer.  Despite being one of Sweden's traditional powers, Göteberg has one the league only once in the last twelve campaigns.

9.  Molde versus Rosenborg, Sunday, Norweigan Eliteserian - Last year's two top finishers face each other in Sunday's late match.  Rosenborg won last season's title by 13 points.  It was Rosenborg's 17th title in 22 years, and if the Troillongan can replicate the team's last meeting, a 2-0 Rosenborg win at Molde, we will have an early idea of what's in store for 2010.  Molde did get a draw at Rosenborg last season, though a lot of good that did.

8.  Shakhtar Donetsk versus Metalist Kharkiv, Sunday, Ukrainian Premier League - Skahktar was a feature on last week's list, winning the Donetsk derby over Matelurh thanks to a 45th minute goal from Aleksandr Gladkiy.  That result may have been disappointing for those hoping somebody will challenge the top two in Ukraine (Dynamo and Shakhtar), thought this weekend should given them greater hope.  Metalist getting three points at Shakhtar would be a coup, bringing them within five of second place.  Regardless of Sunday's, coach Myron Markevych and Metalist remain the best hope to breaking Ukraine's duopoly, now and into the future.

7.  Rubin Kazan versus Lokomotiv Moskva, Sunday, Russian Premier Liga - The two-time defending champions came off their disappointing mid-week draw to Wolfsburg and face the dark horse contender of this year's Liga.  Lokomotive Moskva was a steady side last season, but a series of offseason signings that strengthened their midfield could give Yuri Semin some much needed versatility.  Rubin lost their best player in January but have enough strength without Alejandro Domínguez to retain the title.  The key to their team, their defense, is in tact.

6.  Manchester United versus Fulham, Sunday, English Premier League - On the surface, not the greatest match-up, but if somebody tells you Fulham's won the last two meetings with a 5:0 aggregate, isn't your curiosity peaked?  Coming off a 4-0 Champions League win over Milan, there is also the weekly intrigue of United.  How good is this team?  Is it possible, post-Cristiano Ronaldo, that they are best positioned to reclaim the Champions League? That's the subtext of every United match from here forward.

Here's the poll listing the top five, in alphabetical order.  Click the clink below to see how I ordered them.

Poll
What is/was the biggest match of the weekend?

  26 votes | Results

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8 comments  |  0 recs |

UEFA Champions League: Wednesday's Update

Nicklas Bendtner thanks Andrei Arshavin, who had a critical part in two of the Dane's three Tuesday goals.  (Photo:  ZumaPress)

Nicklas Bendtner thanks Andrei Arshavin, who had a critical part in two of the Dane's three Tuesday goals. (Photo: ZumaPress)

I was almost 0-for-2 with my UEFA Champions League picks yesterday.  Then Arjen Robben's left foot saved my analyst's credibility, a remarkable achievement considering a.) it's a foot, and b.) it saved something that doesn't exist!

That's not to say I'm happy Bayern went through, though.  They advanced over Fiorentina4-4 on away goals thanks to an Arjen Robben wonder strike.

In truth, I'm neither sad nor happy, but I feel a ping of injustice that Fiorentina coach Cesare Prandelli - who had his tactics spot-on throughout all 180 minutes of his tie with Bayern - is out of Champions League.

What do I mean what I say "had his tactics spot-on?"  You want that explained?  

Oh, man.  I thought that was the type of thing I was just allowed to say without the need to justify it.

But OK, I'll give it a shot:

Yesterday's match in Florence saw Fiorentina play into Bayern's approach by conceding both flanks while reinforcing the middle.  This led to the impression that Bayern was controlling the match, with left wing Franck Ribery and right wing Arjen Robben able to easily get into the attacking third down the flanks.

But as you watched Fiorentina you saw a very compact shape at the back, with holding midfielders Cristiano Zanetti and Riccardo Montolivo reinforcing the back while preventing Bayern's talented wingers from cutting back toward the middle of the pitch.    Particularly after getting an early goal (and the lead) from Juan Vargas, this approach forced Munich to open-up and create openings for Fiorentina counters.  Nineteen minutes into the second half, La Viola was up 3-1 in the match, 4-3 on aggregate.

To Bayern's credit, they converted the few second half chances they had, and they were not particularly good ones.

For their first goal (Mark van Bommel, 60'), Franck Ribèry took advantage of a mistake from the Zanetti-Montolivo tandem, was able to get to the middle from the left and lay-off a ball for van Bommel.  The Dutch midfielder opens his foot onto a ball and got a wind-aided goal from 24 meters.

The wind also played a part on Arjen Robben's goal.  For Sebastien Fréy - used to the ball coming at a certain speed - the strong tail wind on each of Bayern's goal could have been the difference.  Sometimes, it really is a game of inches, and with a strong wind behind a shot, those inches become more difficult to read.  Great shots become perfectly unstoppable.

But if you're a coach and you put in a plan where the other team gets two goals from 24 meters and those (in addition to one good chance in the first half) are the only scoring opportunities you yield, that's indicative of a pretty good plan.  Alas for Cesare Prandelli, it was also a losing plan thanks to two win aided goals, a suspect penalty call and an offsides goal (the last two coming in the first leg).

Bayern goes through, Fiorentina is eliminated, and it is on us to remember how the tie really unfolded.

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Continental Championships Preview, Wrap-Up: UEFA, Copa, AFC, CONCACAF

Arsène Wenger in his trademark uniform will try to see Arsenal past Porto without his best player.  (Photo:  ZumaPress)

Arsène Wenger in his trademark uniform will try to see Arsenal past Porto without his best player. (Photo: ZumaPress)

Tuesday sees the return of UEFA Champions League, the world's marquee club soccer competition.  Two teams return home with 2-1 deficits and significant absences undermining their abilities to turn their ties around.

We'll get to that more in a moment.

Why Tuesday mornings are a time for WSDigest to reflect on impending UEFA Champions League action, such single-minded focus can be seen as a disservice to great football taking place in other corners of the globe.

True, the CONCACAF Champions League carries little (or none) of the prestige of its UEFA counterpart, but it's still a competition worthy of consideration.

Likewise the AFC Champions League and the South American equivalent, the Copa Libertadores.

I've made it a point to (try to) keep everybody talking about Copa, but I've neglected Asian Champions League, a neglect I hope will not continue, let alone influence how I approach the CONCACAF's tournament.

I am not an expert on any of these tournaments, but that does not mean we can't all help bring each other up to date.

After the jump, we start going through Tuesday's action in these four competitions.

Poll
Which UEFA Champions League participant is more likely to turn-around their 2-1 deficit?
Arsenal, versus Porto
8 votes
Fiorentina, versus Bayern Munich
2 votes

10 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

58 comments  |  0 recs |

Security Breach Has England National Team Preparations Taped, Shopped

Fabio Capello is reported to have had conversations concerning England national team preparations illicitly taped ahead of last week's friendly with Egypt.  (Photo:  Klingon50/Flickr)

Fabio Capello is reported to have had conversations concerning England national team preparations illicitly taped ahead of last week's friendly with Egypt. (Photo: Klingon50/Flickr)

Reports out of England say the Fabio Capello has had his World Cup preparations compromised by security breaches that have had discussions amongst coaching staff and players recorded.

According to reports, the taped conversations are being shopped to media sources by a somebody who illicitly made the recordings.  To day, nobody has paid, and Football Association lawyers have send media outlets a warning letter, stating that publishing details obtained from the recordings would be illegal.

The breach in security that allowed the illicit records is said to have occurred at The Grove hotel in London ahead of last week's friendly between England and Egypt.  The subject matter is said to concern tactics and potential player bonuses.

Whether these tapes exist or not, the FA is convinced they do.

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2 comments  |  0 recs |

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Americas

Antonio López (l) scored América's first three goals in the Aguillas' route of Querétaro, 6-0.  (Photo:  Newscom)

Antonio López (l) scored América's first three goals in the Aguillas' route of Querétaro, 6-0. (Photo: Newscom)

Guadalajara sprinted out of the gate in México, winning their first five matches of the Bicentenario, recording victories over Toluca, Pachuca, and Puebla along the way.  Surely, this week against winless Jaguares ...

I can't do it.  I can't use this devise to raise the stakes.  The score will speak for itself.

Jaguares posted a shocking 4-0 win over Guadalajara thanks to goals from Jorge Hernandez, Edgar Andrade, Christian Valdéz and Jackson Martínez.

It was one of a number of lop-sided results this weekend, including Monterrey's 3-0 rout of Pachuca, Pumas's 4-1 over Atlante and América's 6-0 pounding of Querétaro, with Antonio López completing his hat-trick within 46 minutes.

Again, Group 2 in México is proving excessively deep, with three of the Bicentenario's five best records residing with that division.

More on an active weekend in the Americas - with big matches in Argentina, Ecuador and Peru - after the jump.  First, the poll:

Poll
Which result was most impressive this weekend in the Americas?

  15 votes | Results

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4 comments  |  0 recs |

Weekend Wrap-up: Europe, the Big Five

Nicolás Burdisso, here with a boot high on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, helped Roma keep Milan off the scoresheet in the teams' 0-0 draw, Saturday at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.  (Photo: ZumaPress)

Nicolás Burdisso, here with a boot high on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, helped Roma keep Milan off the scoresheet in the teams' 0-0 draw, Saturday at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. (Photo: ZumaPress)

Leave it to Italy to take the big build-up I gave it last Friday and give us no goals from the league's top three teams.

I'm not going to make the argument that soccer is only entertaining when goals are scored.  For the record (please, don't keep a record), I have nothing against a lack of scoring.  Nil-nils are not our enemies.

But you can't have a decisive moments without at least one goal, and with Milan's nil-nil at Roma and Internazionale's scoreless draw at home with Genoa, we got nothing decisive to talk about.

I was particularly confused by the team chosen by Roma's Claudio Rainieri.  One choice in particularly, starting Luca Toni on the bench, seemed to hurt the team.  Forcing Mirko Vucinic to play the role higher on the pitch takes away from the movement Roma gets at that second level of attack, where Vucinic, Simone Perrotta and Rodrigo Taddei's movement can give a back line so many problems.  Against a suspect Milan defense, this movement could have been decisive.  As is, Milan got a point and stayed in second place.

In the league's other notable match, Juventus got a second minute goal from Diego and added a second half tally from Fabio Grosso to record a 2-1 win in Florence over Fiorentina.  Juve stays within two points for fourth place Palermo, who needed a late goal from captain Fabrizio Miccoli to get a 1-0 win over relegation-embattled.

The poll goes over the weekend's notable results, and after the jump, we go league-by-league.

Poll
Which result was most impressive this weekend, from Europe's big five leagues?

  23 votes | Results

Continue reading this post »

1 comment  |  0 recs |

Ten Matches to Watch - The Americas

Edison Méndez and LDU Quito take on Deportivo Quito in an Ecuadorian derby, Saturday.

Edison Méndez and LDU Quito take on Deportivo Quito in an Ecuadorian derby, Saturday.

Leagues throughout the Americas have started, with early stories in Ecuador and Peru drawing our attention away from Brazil's state championships and the Copa Libertadores.

One reminder, before we get to the list:  The Chilean league postponed its matches this weekend because of last week's earthquake.  For information on how you can help, here is a link to information on how you can help the American Red Cross's Chile relief efforts.

Now, the list!

10.  Nacíonal versus Guaraní, Paraguayan Division Profesional -  An opening round win over Libertad has vaulted Guaraní, 26 years without a title, to second place, the league's only team without a loss.  In Montevideo on Saturday, Guaraní will get their second test of the tournament.  Nacional is a league power, though Copa Libertadores is distracting from their domestic campaign.  The Clausura champions have lost three of their six matches, but with the international break temporarily alleviating Nacíonal's travel commitments, expect Guaraní to join the ranks of the defeated.

9. Jaguares versus Guadalajara, Mexican Primera Division - Until they drop points, Guadalajara's matches will get my attention.  They are eight rounds into the Bicentenario, have eight wins and has scored 19 goals.  They'll face little opposition this weekend from Jaguares, one of two winless teams in the tournament.  Come Monday, Guadalajara will likely be twelve points up in their group.

8.  Santo André versus Botafogo SP, Brazilian Paulista - The two teams behind Santos in the Paulista will meet in Santo André this weekend.  Botafogo is five points back of Santo André and nine behind Santos, having won only once in their last five matches.  Santo André, on the other hand, have won six in a row thanks to leading goal scorer Rodriguinho (10 goals, 12 appearances) and a the young midfield with Gil, Ale, and Bruno Cesar.  They augment an attack that's scored 29 goals, second in the Paulista.  Botafogo is the Paulista's best defensive team, having allowed only eight goals in 12 matches.

7.  Fluminense versus Botafogo, Brazilian Carioça - Botafogo was the surprise winner the Taça Guanabara, beating Flamengo and Vasco de Gama in the playoff.  They are off to a perfect start through two rounds of the Taça Rio, not surprising in a tournament where the big four (Botafogo, Flamengo, Fluminense, and Vasco) dominate.  This weekend, Botafogo catches another of that quartet, with a perfect Fluminense holding a 8:1 goal ratio ahead of this match.  Fred, Everton, and Dario Conca each have two goals for Flu in the tournament's second half.

6.  Monterrey versus Pachuca, Mexican Primera Division -  After Monterrey's lackluster InterLiga performance and the loss of Humberto Suazo, I backed off my analysis that had the Rayados as one of the Bicentenario's favorites.  Proving against that I know <1% of what I think I do, Monterrey has been on of the stronger teams this tournament, sitting at the top of their group going into this weekend's match with Pachuca.  The Tuzos, who had such an impressive start to the Bicentenario, are winless in three and risks, if they don't find their form, being drawn into the same playoff battle they lost at the end of the Apertura.

For more on the weekend in Mexico you can read Eben Lehman's work at Set Piece.

Here, you can see in the poll (below) the matches comprising my top five.  Click the link below the poll to see the order.

Poll
Which is your Match of the Weekend in the Americas?
Deportivo Quito versus LDU Quito (Ecuador, Primera A)
2 votes
Emelec versus Barcelona (Ecuador, Primera A)
3 votes
Independiente versus River Plate (Argentina, Primera Division)
0 votes
Independiente Medellín versus Junior (Colombia, Primera A)
1 votes
Sporting Cristal versus Leôn de Huânuco (Peru, Primera Division)
1 votes

7 votes | Poll has closed

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1 comment  |  0 recs |

Ten Matches to Watch - Europe

Gonzalo Higuaín and Real Madrid get a chance to avenge an early season defeat when Sevilla visits the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday.  (Photo:  Flickr/ScRO)

Gonzalo Higuaín and Real Madrid get a chance to avenge an early season defeat when Sevilla visits the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday. (Photo: Flickr/ScRO)

I'm not pretending that you are going to watch all these matches.  I'm not even going to pretend that you can watch all these matches.  But come Sunday night if you have time to hit a Google search for some matches, I'd recommended reading up on these:

10.  Chelsea versus Stoke, England's FA Cup - With their struggles, the Blues' best chance for silverware becomes retaining the FA Cup, though it they don't play better than they did during last week's loss to Manchester City, Stoke could have Chelsea.  The Blues are still without Michael Essien, Petr Cech, Deco and Yuri Zhirkov, and that's in addition to long-term injuries to Ashley Cole and José Bosingwa.  Where Chelsea's missing their quickest and most athletic players, a win for Stoke doesn't look that far-fetched.

9.  Benfica versus Paços de Ferriera, Portuguese Liga Sagres - After some stumbles from S.C. Braga, who have been wrestling with Benfica atop the Liga the entire season, the Eagles after alone in first and now have the best defensive record to go with a goal scoring rate that outpaces the next-most-proflic club by more than a half-a-goal per match.  Paços de Ferreira is on the edge of European qualification, sitting in sixth place, unbeaten in seven league matches.

8.  Unirea Urziceni versus Steaua Bucuresti, Romanian Liga - Now out of Europe, Unirea can turn their attention to the league.  Their first obstacle, Steaua Bucuresti coming off a good draw last week against league leading CFR Cluj.  Steaua features the league's leading scorer, Greek attacker Pantelis Kapetanos.  Each team sits on 35 points, tied with second place Timisoara for the Liga's final Champions League spot.  In Romania, the league's second through seventh place teams are separated by three points.

7.  Metalurh Donetsk versus Shakhtar Donetsk, Ukrainian Premier League -  The Ukrainian league is back from a long break, and while most avid followers of European club football would be classified as "addicts" if they could name players from Dynamo Kiev and Shakhtar Donetsk, there are other very good clubs in the league.  Metalist Kharkiv and Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk are worth your time, as is Metalurh Donestk - the league's fourth place team who hosts a local derby on Sunday.  Shakhtar, like Unirea, is (shockingly) done with Europe and can now concentrate on closing the two point gap between them and Dynamo.

6.  Fiorentina versus Juventus, Italian Serie A - Saturday's early match in Italy sees two of the league's most talented teams meet in Florence, though the list of injuries tempers my excitement.  For La Viola, Mario Santana, Juan Vargas, Alessandro Gamberini are all out, with Marco Marchionni and Massimo Gobbi doubtful.  For the Old Lady, Gianluigi Buffon, Mauro Camoranesi, and Amauri are out, while Nicola Legrottaglie and Diego are doubts.  Hmm - perhaps number six is too high for this match.

The top five matches are in this poll.  Click the link, below, for more discussion of them.

Poll
What is Europe's Match of the Weekend (trademark pending)?
Bordeaux versus Montpelier (France, Ligue 1)
3 votes
Fulham versus Tottenham (England, FA Cup)
5 votes
Real Madrid versus Sevilla (Spain, Primera Division)
16 votes
Roma versus Milan (Italy, Serie A)
25 votes
Werder Bremen versus Stuttgart (Germany, 1. Bundesliga)
2 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

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