Two Writers, One International Soccer World
by Richard Farley on Nov 25, 2009 3:51 PM EST
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On Monday we looked at Set Piece Analysts' first World Cup Power Poll to get a quick idea of how a consensus from nine writers sees the relative strength of the World Cup qualifiers. No surprise, Brazil was on top, but we don't get beyond the second spot without noting some abnormalities.
Spain and Germany are tied at second in the SPA poll, an interesting ranking considering Spain's run over the last two years. Few would argue Germany's as talented as Spain. The vote may reflect a reverence for German performance in previous World Cups. Perhaps voters remain unconvinced that the shift taken in the Spanish team before the 2008 European Championships (won with relative ease by Spain) will overshadow past World Cup disappointment.
Spain still got two of the nine first place votes. To catch them, Germany must have been a consistently, highly-rated side, while Spain must have had a few doubters. I know of one pollster (who heavily weighs World Cup history) that ranked Spain outside his top ten. The aggregated poll results belie the diversity in the rankings.
To highlight some of that diversity, I asked World Soccer Reader's Jordan Wise if he would be willing to share his ballot (along with some explanatory thoughts). Jordan willingly agreed, but in the interest of full disclosure, I think Jordan's motives were a.) to avoid me banning him from my podcast, and b.) to avoid me continuing to have his wife on one of my shows.
Regardless, Jordan's views provide a nice counterpoint to mine. Whereas you can see my views as being a bit more "aggressive" (to use a euphemism), Jordan's stays closer to form (with a couple of interesting exceptions).
| Richard Farley's Ballot | Jordan Wise's Ballot | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Nation | Rank | Nation | ||
| Comments | Comments | ||||
| 1 | Brazil | 1 | Spain | ||
| The evidence we have: Confederations Cup, late dominance of CONMEBOL, Spain not being tested in UEFA qualifying, stumbling against the United States and South Africa in the Confederations Cup. | "Picking between Spain and Brazil was a real challenge. I thought that either team is a viable candidate for the top spot and either most people will probably pick to win. My only issue with either one of these teams is that a dark horse seems to win the WC, so who knows who will win. I think Spain can take their success from Euro 2008 and can win this tournament. They were beaten by the US, but that has to be taken as an anomaly. Spain's weakness though has to be its depth. If a player like Torres goes down injured, then Spain could be hurt." | ||||
| 2 | Spain | 2 | Brazil | ||
| They showed themselves to be the best team in Europe, and even with the struggles cited in justifying Brazil, their CV for this spot is far superior to other contenders. | "CONMEBOL's top team and world favorites could be in the top spot. Looking back at it, they could be #1 based soley on their depth and that they have been playing strong lately. Brazil will stumble only if Dunga plays mind games with himself and veers away from his style of football." | ||||
| 3 | Germany | 3 | Cote d'Ivoire | ||
| Two convincing wins over Russia in qualifying. A final appearance in the European Championships that shows they can play beyond their talent. Their history. The tactical acumen of Joachim Löew. Some young stars that will be ready for South Africa. These are the things that help distinguish them from a nation like the Netherlands. | "Ivory Coast is the team I truly hope wins the WC. I think that they have the talent and ability to win the Cup and that playing in front of African fans certainly helps them. How well they actually do, though, is going to be directly related to their chemistry and confidence in the African Cup of Nations." | ||||
| 4 | Cote d'Ivoire | 4 | Germany | ||
| "Didier Drogba is the most important player in world soccer. Chelsea is reliant on him, and he can carry that club to both league and European glory. Cote d'Iviore is reliant on him, and if they can avoid him wearing down during a long tournament (after a long club season), they can win any match. That last clause does not apply to any team below them on this list." | "The Germans haven't been without issues, but you can never discount their chance in a World Cup. They are aging a bit, but they have the potential to do well." | ||||
| 5 | Netherlands | 5 | Italy | ||
| I remain very down on the Netherlands (relative to others), but every team beyond the top two or three have their problems. The Netherlands have the benefit of matching up well against almost every team below them in this ranking. If they played one of the teams above them, I would make them prohibitive underdogs. They're the exact type of team that would get surprised by Côte d'Ivoire. Against everybody else? Their fluid play will cause problems. | "Can Italy repeat? Probably not, but they have the personnel to do very well." | ||||
| 6 | South Korea | 6 | Cameroon | ||
| Amongst a series of evenly matched teams, South Korea's technical ability, speed and discipline will give a lot of clubs trouble. Against European powers like England, Italy, France, and Portugal - powers that have yet to show the ability to win matches as much as survive them while waiting for opposition mistakes - South Korea will be a tough match-up. They were the only team to go through an improving Asia region undefeated (in both phases), clinching early and then drawing matches to close the rounds. | "Cameroon are my second favorite African team and I think that they have a shot at finishing well in the Cup. Sammy Eto'o seems to play well for his country and on the world's stage, I hope he has the maturity and focus to really step up." | ||||
| 7 | Mexico | 7 | Argentina | ||
| You have to look at Mexico since Javier Aguirre came back and discard the cycle's other results. Since he established his squad, Mexico has not only been the best team in their region but also playing a brand of aggressive, passionate futbol that will continuously ask questions of their opposition. Most nations will not have answers. | "I know Argentina are an absolute train wreck and that Maradona is an absolute ass. But, in the World Cup, you can never discount Argentina's chances. The key here is if a team of superstars can move beyond their mess of a coach and play for their country, not Maradona." | ||||
| 8 | Cameroon | 8 | Mexico | ||
| Paul le Guen has taken this team from struggling-to-qualify to threat in South Africa. Like Côte d'Iviore, they now have the depth and tactical acumen to make the effective in-match adjustments that have been lacking from previous African sides. Beyond just the geography of the World Cup, that makes these two African nations a greater threat than in previous competition. | "Though Mexico may have not won the CONCACAF hex, they are certainly the strongest team from our home region. Aguirre's team has really hit its stride and is sure to compete in South Africa." | ||||
| 9 | Ghana | 9 | England | ||
| Unlike Côte d'Ivoire and Cameroon, they lack the depth to be leading contenders; however, amongst this next tier of challenger, names like Michael Essian, Sulley Muntari, John Paintsil, and Asamoah Gyan are as capable of leading as any. The factor that can vault Ghana to real contender is U-20 World Cup star Dominic Adiyiah. He could be the breakout star of World Cup 2010, as it looks as if he's working his way towards a regular role. | "I really struggled with where to place England in this list. They are the perennial underachievers and are overhyped every World Cup. If Capello can find a good balance between youth and experience, then the Three Lions could do well. But, I am so used to seeing England collapse that I really have to temper my expectations for them." | ||||
| 10 | Serbia | 10 | Uruguay | ||
| Like a number of teams in this range, Serbia is a series of very good players sprinkled with a couple of stars. Their stars shine bright, though: Nemanja Vidic, Dejan Stankovic, and Milos Krasic. They tripped against France at the end of qualifying when they had a chance to make a statement, but the lack of statements doesn't change the underlying quality of this team and their ability to win a decent UEFA qualifying group. | "Uruguay is a real sleeper team for me. I think a lot of people will overlook them and forget that they are a nation that has won 2 World Cups. But, they won when it mattered and qualified for a trip to South Africa. I hope Uruguay does really well in the WC." | ||||
| 11-20 | England Italy Paraguay Slovenia Slovakia Japan Argentina Denmark Switzerland France |
11-20 | Portugal Netherlands France Serbia Denmark Slovakia Slovenia United States Paraguay Greece |
||
| Ranking traditional powers low: England, Italy, Argentina, France. They aren't very good right now. Come June, I expect at least Italy and Argentina to be, but for me this poll isn't about a crystal ball. If the World Cup were held today, I see these as teams that would - at best - finish second in their group. | Portugal is a team that is filled with big names but seems to underachieve when it matters ... (Netherlands) are a team that hasn't done much in the last 10 years ... (France's) talent is obviously there, but the chemistry is still coming together ... if (the Greeks) play their game and frustrate and slow down opponents, then they have a chance to surprise people. | ||||
| 21-32 | Chile Portugal Uruguay United States Australia Nigeria Honduras Greece Algeria South Africa North Korea New Zealand |
21-32 | Ghana Japan Chile Australia South Korea Switzerland Nigeria Honduras South Africa North Korea Algeria New Zealand |
||
As you can infer from the poll's results, most voters submitted ballots reflecting how they feel teams will perform next June. My ballot reflects how I feel teams would perform tomorrow, hence the high rankings of South Korea and Ghana, the low rankings of Italy and Argentina. Jordan took they more logical, prospective approach.
The big differences between Jordan and myself come after the fourth spot. I have the Dutch, South Koreans, Ghanians high. He has the Argentines, Italians, and Uruguayans in spots of confidence.
Beyond the intrigue in the comparison of two ballots is the backgrounds of the voters. Jordan and I, in the big picture, are practically demographically identical, yet there is a lot of healthy disagreement in the two rankings.
Where do you differ from Jordan and I? Let's talk about it in the comments, below.
Let's do the catch-all again, shall we?
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I still think that given the chance
FIFA will help out South Africa if they can and putting CONCACAF with Africa would do so. With this being Africa’s coming out party in world soccer, having South Africa do well and a the host country jumping behind the team, black and whites alike, would be one of those things FIFA would love to brag about.
With regards to seeding, I’m beginning to think that we won’t see the same formula that we saw in 2006. With the struggles of France and their controversial qualification, I think FIFA will tweak it in some way to keep France from receiving a seed.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 25, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions
I wouldn't be surprised at all ...
… if France or Argentina ends up unseeded. Argentina was barely seeded under the last formula. If Argentina is unseeded, that make the pod grouping more complicated.
I definitely respect your feel regarding the pod make-up. Certainly, it’s possible, especially with FIFA keeping cards so close to the vest.
by Richard Farley on Nov 25, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Especially after the way Netherlands looked
during qualifying, I think FIFA will find a way to move them into a seed. I still hold out that 0.000000001% chance of hope that FIFA decides to seed the top team in each region and that the US is their choice for winning CONCACAF. I think that 0.000000001% chance may be overly hopeful though.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 25, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think ...
… Netherlands was untested in qualifying. I just don’t know what to think, based on their results. But I agree with you: they did look very good in the matches they played.
by Richard Farley on Nov 25, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
They certainly weren't in the most difficult of groups
Nobody is going to confuse Norway or Scotland for Croatia, but 17 goals for and only two against was very impressive. I was most impressed by their organization along the back line, although we’ll see what happens when they’re tested by a little more speed. If Sneijder can find his form and give them a dominant midfielder to go along with their abundance of striking talent (assuming van Persie gets healthy), I really like their chances.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 25, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Assuming van Persie gets healthy
is now looking like a poor assumption. Out until late March at the very, very earliest now? Ouch.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Ackowledging that this is a longshot
If FIFA really does manipulate the draw to the extent that some would like to believe, how about USA as the second team in Group A, playing South Africa in the opening match with Obama present. The FIFA execs might pee themselves. Just an interesting thought, even if it won’t happen.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 26, 2009 1:02 AM EST reply actions
That would be ...
… disconcerting to see drawn, kind of goosebump-inducing to watch.
by Richard Farley on Nov 26, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
And if FIFA really did go to such lengths
you could guarantee that North Korea ends up in that group as well.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 26, 2009 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Richard-
(belated) Welcome to SBNation! I just found your site a day or two ago and am already hooked. I’ve recently, in the last couple of years, become a big footy fan, so like many, I am still learning the behind-the-scenes happenings and how everything like WC draws, seeding, etc. works. I’ve found your last couple of posts very helpful. So, thank you.
That said, if you are ever looking for an idea for something to post about, maybe you could do a satirical piece on an “All-Conspiracy Draw of the World Cup,” kind of along the lines of what Ryan Rosenblatt and yourself were discussing above. That might be good for a laugh or ten. I’d do it myself, but I haven’t the knowledge and insight to make it post-worthy.
lol can't have a CKC without KC - Nicholai Khabibulin (LN21)
I am interested to see the draw
I watched a lot of quailification matches and feel like teams like Slovakia and Slovenia could be solid dark horses. Slovakia won their UEFA group with relative ease, and Slovenia took out the Russians in one of the better playoff matches I’ve seen. Maybe experience will do them in when push comes to shove.
Also, why is everyone so down on the hosts? I know SFA is only ranked 80-something in the world, but doesn’t hosting the tourney give them any advantage? Didn’t they take Spain to extratime in the Confed Cup 3rd place game? Plus, every host nation in WC history got through the first round.
If South Africa were potted with the rest of Africa
then everyone wouldn’t be dying to get them because of the reasons you mentioned. When it’s South Africa or one of the world’s seven best teams, you’re dying for South Africa.
Formerly ryebreadraz
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Nov 27, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
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