Italy defender Fabio Cannavaro, star of Germany 2006, embodies the generational shift confounding the Azzurri. (Photo via Newscom)

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The analytics agree that Group F is the least threatening quartet, a conclusion with which I disagreed, and I don't see it as that close.  

The top teams in the groups (Italy and Mexico) are comparable, and if you want to argue that Mexico is the stronger team today, I would knock you off your soapbox, grab your megaphone, and ... and trumpet El Tri's cause.  At the same time, we've seen this routine from Italy before, and unlike a France side that laid an egg in 2002, Italy always finds a way to be competitive and get out of their group (they've done so every final since 1974).

The next level of the groups - the second and third teams - where we see the real distinctions between groups A and F.  

In Group A you have two talented but overrated sides, France and Uruguay, who barely qualified and show no sign of finding form commensurate with their abilities.  In Group F, you have the winner of the deepest UEFA group (Slovakia) and the most consistent team in CONMEBOL qualifying (Paraguay) who show almost no sign of going flat before South Africa.

The quality of the top three nations in Group F may be stronger than groups B, C and D, and while I do not agree that the best in each of those groups outclass the Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia triad, Group F was an Australia away from looking more like D than A.

As the seventh-toughest, second-easiest group for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, I present the Guild of Health:  Group F.

Elo - Elo Rating; FIFA - FIFA World Ranking, December 2009; SPI - Soccer Power Index, Silver/Soccernet; SPA - Set Piece Analysts World Cup Power Poll; Avg. - Statistical mean of four measures

The rankings do not like this group as much as Group A, where three teams ranked 14th or better. Here, while Italy has a strong average of 7, neither Paraguay nor Slovakia are thought of highly.  But just as Italy is not playing as the 4th (FIFA) or 6th (Elo) best side in the world, neither are Paraguay or Slovakia as poor as their ratings.

Italy - As much as any nation in the world, Italy has a concept of a World Cup cycle.  That is the reason why this three-time World Cup winner has not won the European Championships in over 40 years.  For them, that tournament is part of the building process for the World Cup, so while they looked poor in Austria/Switzerland and only slightly better in qualifying (after the return of Marcello Lippi), don't expect regression from the Azzurri.  

Their uninspired form (which still got them seven wins and three draws in ten qualifying matches) is the floor.  They will be no worse in 2010 than they were in 2009.

That is not to say they are without question, and Italy's history indicates they may be set for an "off-year" in 2010.

Italy's strong Cups seem to come ever-other tournament.  The Italians were strong in 2006, winning the tournament.  They won their groups in each of 1998 and 1990, and though they finished second in their group in 1982, they did not lose a match in route to winning the tournament.  

In contrast, Italy has group stage finishes of second, third, and second in 2002, 1994, and 1986 (respectively), though their third pace group stage finish in 1994 was followed by a penalty kicks loss to Brazil in the tournament's final.

If that on-year, off-year patten holds, Italy will struggle in South Africa, but patterns do not exist independent of causes.  In addition to the way Italy cycles their players, squad, and program for World Cups, are there reasons to believe Italy's lackluster form will continue?

I see two:

First, age.  

The Azzurri have a series of players on the wrong side of 30.  Starting from the back and moving forward (and only considering players who could break a starting XI): goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon (32, in South Africa); defenders Fabio Cannavaro (36), Gianluca Zambrotta (33), Fabio Grosso (32), Nicola Lagrottaglie (33); midfielders Andrea Pirlo (31), Mauro Camoranesi (33), Genaro Gattuso (32), Massimo Ambrosini (33); forwards Antonio Di Natale (32), Vincenzo Iaquinta (30), Luca Toni (33).

It's not fair to look at the older players without taking into account younger talents, but there-in lies the problem.  The list of young contributors to the national side is far shorter than the twelve aging stars that help form the team's backbone.  Giorgio Chiellini (25 for South Africa) looks a good choice at center back, and Riccardo Montolivo (25) has been frequently capped over the last three years.  Thanks to the fading of his competition, Giuseppe Rossi (23) now looks a good bet to head south with the squad.

Aside from that, the youth movement has stalled, with Italy having trouble finding spots for the David Santons, Claudio Marchisios, and Mario Balotellis.

Bringing back Marcello Lippi in the wake of Euro 2008 was the Italian federation's way of saying "we are willing to give this group one more try."  Else, they would have brought in another coach, one with whom they could build for 2012.  

By bringing back the coach that gave them victory in Germany, they're looking to turn back the clock.  With this roster, it may be too late.

The second reason to think Italy's poor form can continue:  The Azzurri have problems in attack; specifically, finding an impact striker.  

Toni is getting old and was ineffectual in Germany.  It's unclear whether Alessandro del Piero or Francesco Totti are going to be options (or how good they will be, if taken).  That leaves a decent strike force of Rossi, Di Natale, Iaquinta, and Alberto Gilardino, but there is not a international-level match-winner amongst them.  Most countries in the world would be thrilled to have that quartet (and somebody like Balotelli in reserve), but this is not most countries. 

While Gilardino has a very good goal scoring record at the international level, Italy will need to improve an attack that got 18 goals in 10 qualifying matches, a rate matched or bested by seventeen nations in UEFA.

Paraguay - The Paraguayans have qualified for the last three World Cups.  They made it out of group stage in 1998 and 2002 and finished 18th in Germany.  In qualifying, they finished third in a region where, after going 4-1-0 to start qualifying, they were never far from the top of the table.  

So why no respect from the rankings or the media?  Let's take the media first.  

Paraguay has relatively few of their important players playing in European leagues, so unless you're watching club soccer in the Western Hemisphere, you are not seeing the impact-making Paraguayans.  Complicating things further, the Western Hemisphere coverage you get in the States is almost all MLS, so a great league like Mexico - where many of the influential Paraguayans are playing - fails to get exposure.

Nothing that happens in the Mexican leagues will get adequate coverage in the North American, English-speaking press.

Add in CONMEBOLs qualifiers being overshadowed (on this continent) by Europe (for the names and history) and CONCACAF (understandable, and because of some rare time zone conflicts) and Paraguay is rarely discussed.

That does not explain why the ranking systems don't value the Paraguayans, but again this gets back to not having their players in Europe.  

Because Brazil and Argentina have so much of their core's talent in Europe, those federations will take in-season friendlies there to cut down on their player's travel.  In addition, the Brazilians and Argentines are draws - money-makers for federations trying to sell tickets to exhibitions.

While Paraguay did play their last friendly in France (though it was against Qatar) and the Netherlands, their four preceding friendlies had been in Chile, South Korea, Peru, and Oman.  

While there is still a good amount of travel there, the fixture list lacks the quality of opposition required to boost ratings.  Consider in the last two years Argentina has played European-based friendlies against Spain, France, Russia and Scotland while hosting Ghana in Córdoba.  Paraguay is just not doing enough to look better to the FIFA rating system.

That does not mean they are not a good team.  Ratings are one thing, quality is another, and Paraguay has quality.

More often than not, the Paraguayans play a straight 4-4-2, the backbone of which is Real Valladolid goalkeeper Justo Villar and defenders Paulo da Silva (Sunderland) and Julio César Cáceras (Boca Juniors).

(Note:  The article originally included a reference to Juventus's Martín Cáceras, who is Uruguyan - not Paraguayan.)

In the middle, Cruz Azul's Cristian Riveros orchestrates an extremely talented group of options that includes Edgar Benítez (forward, Pachua), Salvador Cabañas (forward, Club América), Oscar Cardozo (forward, Benfica), Osvaldo Martínez (midfielder, Monterrey), Jonathan Santana (midfielder, Wolfsburg), and Nelson Váldez (forward, Borussia Dortmund).

Váldez and Cabañas are the choice partnership for coach Gerardo Martino, combining for eleven goals in qualifying.  Cabañas, in particular (with 12 goals in the 2009 Mexican Apertura), is set to make an impact in South Africa.

If he or another attacker finds a run of form in June, Paraguay goes from "likely to advance" to "legitimate threat."  Only once in 18 qualifiers did the Paraguayans allow more than two goals, letting-in only 16 for the qualifying tournament.  While their goal scoring record (24) left something to be desired, they will be a difficult match for a triad of Group F squads with questions in attack.

Slovakia - Like the Paraguayans, the Slovaks are considered weak merely because they are less known than the world's elite, overshadowing the fact that the talent drop-off in world soccer between relative superstar and anonymous professional means little after the first whistle is blown.  How anonymous players like Martin Skrtel (Liverpool) and Marek Hamsik (Napoli) should be in this market is debatable, but it is still not uncommon to see analysis of the Slovaks completely ignore these two world class players.

Skrtel pairs with Lokomotiv Moscow center back Jan Durica to form a solid pairing in front of Ján Mucha.  

That pairing did allow a relatively high goals-per-game (1.0) in qualifying, but their group with the deepest in Europe.  With Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Poland, the Slovaks had a group filled with recent World Cup qualifiers, not to mention Northern Ireland, a team that sat in second place for much of the cycle.  Against this competition, Slovakia went 4-0-1 on the road and never gave up more than two goals in a match.

While Hamsik is their most talented and dangerous player (capable of creating a goal at any time), Stanislav Sesták is the producer, leading their qualifying group with six goals.  The 26-year-old attacker players more of a supporting role than target man, and his play for club and country has sparked rumors of him stepping-up from Bundesliga Bochum by the end of the World Cup.

With Stesák only 26, and Hamsik only 22, the key for Slovakia's chances in South Africa could be how they and additional young players like Vladimir Weiss (20, Manchester City), Miroslav Stoch (20, FC Twente), and Lubos Hanzel (22, Schalke) improve for the World Cup.  Those players will need to provide depth in support of Stesák, Hamsik, Skrtel and Jucina.

Without contributions from those emerging talents, it's difficult to see Slovakia challenging the group's top two.

New Zealand -  I don't want to minimize New Zealand's accomplishment in making this tournament, but the ease of their qualification route bares mentioning, if for no other reason than to inform of their quality.

New Zealand is now the big fish in the small pond that is Australia-less Oceania.  The Kiwi's biggest challenges in the region are New Caledonia (who have only one player playing outside the New Caledonian league, and he plays in Tahiti) and Fiji, who have six players in the New Zealand league and the rest playing in their domestic circuit.

New Zealand went 5-0-1 in qualifying, but given their loss and five goals allowed, it seems pertinent to ask which of the other World Cup qualifiers would have done worse.  Would North Korea have even allowed a goal?

New Zealand got through a two-legged playoff with Asia's fifth place team, Bahrain, when a Rory Fallon 135th minute goal (45th minute of the second leg) held up, with Mark Paston saving a penalty kick that would have put Bahrain through.

And that was New Zealand's toughest match in qualifying.

Regardless, the Kiwis are here, but between results, form, and talent, they look the tournament's weakest team.  They have Blackburn captain (defender) Ryan Nelson, Chris Killen at Celtic, and two players in English league football (Fallon and Chris Wood).  The rest of their team, aside from San Jose Earthquake midfielder Simon Elliott (if he makes the trip), is playing in New Zealand.  

At the Confederations Cup this summer, New Zealand got only one point and failed to score a goal in a group that included South Africa and Iraq.

Congratulations to the Kiwis on making the World Cup.  I hope it spurs interest in the game in New Zealand.  

Oceania should not be its own confederation.

Worthless Predictions

June 14, Cape Town:  Paraguay 2, Italy 0 - Italy gets off to a slow start and Paraguay wins the match after six months of preparing through dreams.  This early in the tournament, Italy's attack is too impudent to break down the Paraguayans, while their age at the back struggles with the various Paraguayan options.

June 15, Rustenberg:  Slovakia 3, New Zealand 0 - The Slovaks roll and briefly give the impression that they can get out of this group.  Meanwhile, new Kiwi-supporters start to wonder what they've gotten themselves into.

June 20, Nelspruit:  Italy 2, New Zealand 0 - Marcello Lippi spends this match preparing his team for what he knows will be a win-and-in match four days later against Slovakia.  The Italians get an early goal (or two) and spend the rest of the match with their cards held to their vests.

June 20, Bloemfontein:  Paraguay 1, Slovakia 1 - Paraguay controls the match but, after their convincing victory against Italy, have a bit of a let-down, being unable to get a second goal which, though they found it against Italy, they also had trouble finding in qualifying.

June 24, Polokwane:  Paraguay 4, New Zealand 1 - The Paraguayans not only control the match but put up a score (just in case the Slovaks get through).  The Kiwis get a late goal for pride, with the Paraguayans knowing that Slovakia is not turning the differential around.

June 20, Nelspruit:  Italy 1, Slovakia 0 - The Slovaks made a good run, getting to four points through two matches, but as down as Italy may be, this is not the year they lose to the Slovaks.  At least, I don't see it happening if the Azzurri are given a win-and-in match.