Can Diego Maradona get Lionel Messi, Argentina back into the world's elite? (Photo by Photogamma/Getty Images)

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The common theme amongst the easiest groups for South Africa 2010:  Weakness - specifically, weakness in the established power.  When I talked about Group A (the Tribe of Life), France was the faltering squad treading on its legacy.  In yesterday's view of Group F (the Guild of Health), Italy was seen-to-be in need to transition - in want of a time machine.

Today, that spotlight team is Argentina, a squad that became this cycle's poster-child for underperforming nations.  Still, the Albiceleste is here, they're seeded, and they drew a fortunate group.  While South Korea was (arguably) the toughest team that could be drawn from Pot C, Greece and Nigeria were fortune pulls (given other options).

What distinguishes Group B from the two weaker quartets is the lack of a true bottom-feeder.  There is no New Zealand.  There is no South Africa (who I still have advancing from Group A).  If Argentina does not get their act together, any of these sides could win the group.  Any could finish fourth, and it's that balance that makes this group slightly stronger than A and F.

While balance is normally a quality that would garner greater consideration as a Group of Death, the quality in this group does not measure up to D or E, or even C - the other groups that go four deep.  Because Argentina looks so vulnerable, it's difficult to see this quartet with the high-end quality that the Netherlands, Germany, and England provide their groups.  

Add the fact that neither Greece nor Nigeria had impressive qualifying campaigns and this group appears to be a very mixed bag.

As the sixth-toughest, third-easiest group for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, I present the Fraternity of Inconclusive Diagnosis:  Group B.

Elo - Elo Rating; FIFA - FIFA World Ranking, December 2009; SPI - Soccer Power Index, Silver/Soccernet; SPA - Set Piece Analysts World Cup Power Poll; Avg. - Statistical mean of four measures

By the ratings, this group is a lot like Group F: one high-ranking side and a couple if third-tier powers. The big difference: Group B has no New Zealand, and instead has a third, third-tier power.

Argentina - The Alibceleste finished fourth in CONMEBOL qualifying, a 1-0 win in Montevideo in the last round saving them from the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL playoff.  This is the first time since South America went to single-table qualifying in 1998 that Argentina did not finish at least tied at the top of the region (note: Brazil did not have to qualify in 1998 because of the then-defending champions rule).  

While you will hear people talk about Brazil's struggles in 2002 (preceding their world title) and say "we've seen this before," we have not seen Argentina struggle like this since 1994.

Then, CONMEBOL qualifying was broken into two groups, and the region had only three-and-a-half bids. Argentina barely got the half-bid, finishing one point ahead of Paraguay after the Paraguayan's draw at Peru on the last day of qualifying.  Paraguay would have advanced (on goal differential) had they not given Peru their only point of the qualifying campaign.

Argentina barely got in to U.S.A. 1994 after a 2-1 (two-legged) playoff win over Australia.

If you see that as a historically relevant example, know Argentina finished third in their group in that World Cup.  They got into the second round by being the best third-place finisher (back in the days when the tournament was 24 teams).  

In the Round of 16, they lost to Romania 3-2.

Fast-forward to 2009, and Argentina looks set-up for similarly disappointing results, with the squad suffering from three major problems.

First, leadership, specifically from the head coach.  Diego Maradona has been the subject of a lot of criticism, but I've seen slow improvement throughout his reign.  In the beginning, he set-up his side relying on his players to do Maradona-like things:  generate great individual performances that would turn matches.  He threw out Lionel Messi, Sergio Agüero, Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano with no greater mandate than "win."  Who cared about a tactical approach when you had match-winners, was the underlying philosophy.

That approached failed.  Maradona was a historically unique talent, and it's unfair to expect even Lionel Messi to play the game the same way.  To Maradona's credit, he saw that and wisely moved on. 

So let's give Maradona credit: he recognized that failure and started to adjust.  That's why he has called-in so many different players during his short tenure as Argentina boss.  He's looking for the right mix of players who will not only a.) correct the problems that caused his hiring, but also b.) bring the adjustments to Maradona's original plan.  

While this circus may not have been the way we would have solved the problem, it is a least attempt - an effort at correction that you didn't see from names like Raymond Domenech, Guus Hiddink, Carlos Queiroz, Sven-Göran Eriksson, or his predecessor, Alfio Basile (who resigned after losing to Chile).  Those coaches have exhibited a stubbornness which Maradona, to his credit, has avoided.

Not that there are not other problems with Maradona, but back on point:  Argentina's two other major problems.

Those two problems are personnel-based, a reason why you've seen some of Maradona's call-ups have been very strange.  

Up top, Argentina lacks diversity in their strike force, having a series of attacking midfielders and supporting strikers but no true center-forward:  No successor to Gabriel Batistuta.  Hence the recall of Martín Palermo.

The back, where Argentina has been a mess, is the third problem.  Martín Demichelis's return to health will be a big boost, but this is a backline for whom Gabriel Heinze has continued to be a major presence.  While it now looks like Maradona is ready to move on from him and Javier Zanetti (a less positive move), it is unclear whether players like Nicolás Otamendi (Vélez Sarsfield) and Cristian Ansaldi (Rubin Kazan) will be able to step-in.

My analysis of those players:  they are ready, and along with Demichelis and a recall of Zanetti for right back, Argentina could be greatly improve upon what we saw in qualifying.  Still, these are the issues that led to a player like Rolando Schiavi getting his first cap at age 36.

If he solves them, Maradona will have a decent attack and defense, but the detriments of not finding the right formula until late can been seen in the strength seen in rival Brazil.  Dunga has his team - has had his team for some time.  Argentina will developing that cohesion over the next six months, providing Maradona can settle on a squad.

Greece - The Greeks are rated highly by FIFA and Elo because of a solid run qualifying for Euro 2008,  Then, they lost only once in twelve matches in a group that included Turkey, Norway, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary.  While that may seem an impressive collection of teams, it is the type of solid-if-unspectacular group against whom you can build a rating.

Come Euro 2008, Greece was terrible.  They lost all three matches, scored only one goal, and looked scared to play anything beyond the responsible (read: conservative) style that won them Euro 2004.  

In the short-term, you could not blame them for continuing with that successful formula, but when the Greeks opened that tournament playing a 5-4-1 against Sweden, things had gone too far.

Euro 2008 is not their only recent international disappointment, as the then-reigning European Champions failed to qualify for Germany 2006, finishing fourth in their group.  

While their strength in qualifying for the European championships gave the Greeks a string of mixed results, something needed to change.

In qualifying for 2010, the Greeks employed a more conventional approach, at times showing a modest creative spirit.  They also looked uncomfortable.  

In group play, they lost both their matches against Switzerland (being outscored 4-1 in the process), and although they survived a playoff against Ukraine, they were largely ineffectual when in possession and forced to create their own chances.  Their one goal against the Ukraine was a well-made goal, but it may have been their only self-generated chance in 180 minutes.

Improving their attack is a must, but for coach Otto Rahhagel, there are few options.  Celtic's Georgios Samaras has the skill, as exhibited when he set-up the goal against Ukraine, but aside from him and Bayer Levekusen bench-warmer Theofanis Gekas, Rahhagel has no place to turn.

With a core of players in the late-twenties, early-thirties, the Greeks are stuck with what they have:  a team of players used to playing a certain way, a way that has not yielded results for the last two major tournaments (for only one of which they qualified).

Nigeria - There are a a lot of good memories of the Nigeria teams that made three straight cups from 1994 to 2002, but Nigeria failed to qualify for Germany and punched their ticket to South Africa only after group leading Tunisia was upset by Mozambique on the last day of CAF qualifying.  

Though they did not lose in qualifying, Nigeria never played at the level you would expect from a team that could do damage in a World Cup.  For example, in their group's fourth game, they allowed Tunisia to come to Abuja and get a draw, giving their guests control of the group.  On the last match day - when they knew the needed a win over Kenya - they allowed the Kenyans to both get an early lead and to tie the match in the second half.

Suffice to say I do not have similar stories to tell of Cote d'Iviore, Ghana, Cameroon and Algeria.

Nigeria has a number of strikers (Obafemi Martins, Peter Odemwingie, Yakubu Aiyegbeni and Nwankwu Kanu) but lack both elite and consistent options, a problem accentuated by a midfield overly-dependent on Jon Obi Mikel for creativity and support.  The Super Eagles have a good back line thanks to players like Everton's Joseph Yobo and Marsielle's Taye Taiwo, but overall, this Nigeria team is nowhere near as strong as the teams that won their groups in 1994 and 1998.

To move forward, Nigeria must find a way to offset their issues in midfield.  Obi Mikel is very good, especially for Nigeria, and Seyi Olofinjana will prove a deep-sitting option to bust-up attacks, but they need more, and the best place to look may be at the back.

That's where a player like Taiwo comes in.  The left back is having his best season in Ligue Un and was strong in qualifying.  If he can use his athleticism, get up into attack, and create the width the Super Eagles will need to help link-up play, the Nigerians will be able to augment that deficiency.  Taiwo, with seven goals in 26 career appearances for Nigeria, has the ability to threaten.

On the right, CSKA Moscow's Chidi Odiah can fill a similar role.  While neither as good nor as prolific as Taiwo, Odiah still has the ability to create some much-needed width, without which teams will be able to clog the middle.

South Korea - South Korea, on the other hand, is a team primed to do well.  Five reasons:

First, their qualifying form showed their quality.  They went fourteen matches without losing in Asian qualifying, and while the format of the qualifying allowed them to avoid both Australia and Japan, the yhad to play fellow-qualifiers North Korea four times, as well as 2006 qualifiers Saudi Arabia and Iran twice, each.  

Thanks in part to continued development, in part to Australia's inclusion, the Asian confederation has new-found depth.  South Korea was able to navigate it without incident, advancing early out of both rounds.

Second, is their top-player quality.  No, they aren't Spain or Brazil, but slowly South Korea has got about half of their key players into big leagues.  Everybody knows about Park Ji-Sung at Manchester United, but you also have players in action or training at Zenit St. Petersburg (Kim Dong-Jin), Fulham (Soel Ki-Hyeon), Monaco (Park Chu-Young), Bolton (Lee Chung-Yong), Wigan (Cho Won-Hee), Freiburg (Cha Du-Ri) and most recently Celtic (Ki Sung-Yong).  For a developing program, getting players consistent experience against top-level competition is a key to improving program quality.  South Korea is doing that.

Third, the K-League is quickly improving (as the Pohang Steelers are showing this week in Abu Dhabi), thanks in large part to the development system Guss Hiddink put in place during this tenure with the program.  Many remember Hiddink as the architect of South Korea's semifinal run in 2002, but while he was doing that, the Dutchman was also putting a development program in place that has provided talent to an emerging league.  

From a confederation that includes reasonably strong leagues in Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, K-League clubs have won four confederation titles this decade, placing another team in a final.  

Even dismissing that as a barometer, visual inspection of the K-League sees a high, demanding, technically sound quality of play.

Fourth, is South Korea's style , a style that could play well in South Africa.  On the one hand you think that South Korea's lack of physicality might be a negative in the cold, high-elevation environment of South Africa.  On the other hand, consider how the fitness, skill, technique and speed of South Korea will fair in the South African winter.  The speed could perhaps be neutralized, but the other traits will be advantages, and in a group stage where you are more likely to be playing flawed teams, those traits allow Korea to exploit deficiencies.  

Hence their success in qualifying.

Fifth and finally, South Korea has a group of young players coming through who, augmenting the core that has had two straight successful trips to the World Cup, gives us reason to think the South Koreans will improve on their 2006 result.  A player like Lee Chong-Yung (21, Bolton) has a class on the ball that will provide balance to Park Ji-Sung on the opposing wing.  Twenty-year old Ki Sung-Yong will now take his passing acumen and vision to Scotland to prepare before South Africa, while 24-year-old Park Chu-Young got himself to Ligue Un last year and has played a regular role for Monaco.

This is a team that can give the defense of Argentina problems.  They have the skill in midfield to take Nigeria's Jon Obi Mikel out of a match, and they have the tactical acumen and can employ a dynamism that will break down Greece.

Worthless Predictions

June 12, Johannesburg:  Argentina 3, Nigeria 1 - Form or not, Argentina always gets up for the major international competitions, and peaked to open the tournament, they overrun the Nigerians and have the media asking whether Maradona has things figured out.

June 12: Port Elizabeth:  South Korea 2, Greece 1 - South Korea completely controls this game, and with better finishing could have put up a better score.  Greece gets a goal from a set-piece to create a deceiving final score.

June 17: Johannesburg:  South Korea 2, Argentina 1 - Maradona's inexperience, tactical deficiencies, and questions are the back all add up in the second match, as he is unable to put a plan together to beat the less-talented, more organized Koreans.  Without a true center-forward, South Korea's discipline, speed and fitness mostly neutralize the favorites.

June 17:  Bloemfontein:  Nigeria 2, Greece 0 - John Obi Mikel keys the Super Eagles to the win in a match that both sides will see as must-win.  Between the two relatively even teams, Greece's inability to match-up with the Nigerian midfielder allows him to control the match, setting-up Martins and Odemwingie.  For Greece, it's Euro 2008 all over again.

June 22:  Polokwane:  Argentina 2, Greece 1 - In a Maradona special, the Albiceleste shockingly put their group stage chances in danger by falling behind early to a Greek counter or set-piece.  Again, Argentina seems ill-prepared, but pulling a goal back just after half, they look poised to advance regardless of what happens with Nigeria.  Late, Argentina gets their goal, just as they did in their must-win qualifiers at the end of the cycle.  Unimpressive?  Maybe, but Argentina's through.

June 22:  Durban:  South Korea 1, Nigeria 1 - The Koreans need only one point to win the group.  They get the first goal and play for the draw.  Nigeria - knowing they could get through with just a draw and the right result in Polokwane - maintain their spirits.  They pull the goal back, but the superior Koreans are never in danger of losing that last point, and with the near-miss in Germany still on their mind, they close out the group.