Malawi "Shocks" Algeria, Cote d'Ivoire in Trouble After Draw
by Richard Farley on Jan 11, 2010 5:15 PM EST
2 comments
The second day of Cup of Nations play gave us two matches, two surprise results.
Algeria's defending fell apart in allowing three goals to Malawi in the Desert Foxes' 3-0 loss. Losing what was supposed to be the easiest match of the group, Algeria has put themselves in a bad spot (as it concerns advancing). They are in last place in Group A. They have a -3 goal differential. They are (at least) three goal behind the next team on goals scored. For the nation most of you liked to win this group, the odds are against their advancing.
While the magnitude of Algeria's loss may have been surprising, them losing was not (we had predicted a draw). Cote d'Ivoire's result, however? Possibly the biggest surprise.
Cote d'Ivoire dominated their match against Burkina Faso but came to rue not punching in an early goal (when they were continuously generating shots) when the match ended in a 0-0 draw. Although Les Éléphants played well, this was one of those soccer matches that seemed destined to end deadlocked.
Unfortunately for the Ivorians, this makes more viable a scenario where they leave Angola after group play.
More after the jump, but here are the Group A and B tables:
| Place | Group A | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malawi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Angola | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | Mali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | Algeria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Place | Group B | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burkina Faso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Cote d'Ivoire | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In the day's first match, Malawi run up a "surprise" 3-0 result on Algeria. I put surprise in quotes because, although we weren't predicting a Malawi romp, all signs coming into this tournament said this match was going to be closer than expected. Still, as the match unfolded, you could detect a hum of shock across [INSERT SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLET HERE].
Algeria is the worst of the World Cup qualifiers in this tournament, and Malawi's improvement throughout qualifying made them better than their recent results might suggest. Throw in the turmoils surround Algeria and their coach and you have a team ripe for a let-down.
It's always difficult to foresee such scenarios before they unfold, but going forward, it is hard to imagine Algeria rebounding from this loss, particularly considering the level of competition only improves.
The good news for the Foxes? It's difficult to imagine their defending to be so poor in the next match. Against Malawi, their defense collapsed, particularly on the first and third goals.
In the second match, Cote d'Ivoire faced a Burkina Faso team that employed a completely different tactic than the Ivorians saw in qualified. The Elephants appeared caught off-guard and never made an adjustment.
In the early going it looked like the favorites would find a quick goal, but Cote d'Ivoire were never able to punch through one of their numerous chances. During Les Éléphants entries past the back line and attempts to find an attacker in front of goal, Burkina Faso quickly collapses towards goal, a tactic that seemed more function of early circumstance than primary option.
As the match went on and Burkina Faso never switching into the more ambitious football was saw in qualifying, it became clear that the underdogs had adjusted. After losing 5-0 (on the road) and 3-2 (at home) in qualifying, the Stallions seemed to have adopted a more practical approach.
Having allowed 16 goals in 12 qualifiers, it was an open question whether Paulo Duarte's men were capable of holding off the Ivorians, should they be asked to do so. On Monday, they were asked, responded, and got an important point.
That point paints a scenario through which Burkina Faso could advanced. I talked about this scenario on a weekend podcast, but at the time I would have put a four or five percent change on it playing out. Now, I think the odds might be closer to thirty percent.
Cote d'Ivoire plays Ghana on Friday, the Black Stars' first match of the tournament, a product of Togo being out of the tournament. Burkina Faso has the day off, returning to action against Ghana next week.
If a rested Ghana side can been Cote d'Ivoire, the Ivorians will have finished group play with one point and a negative goal differential.
This gives the Burkinabé three ways to advance:
- Beat Ghana, get to four points, and win the group,
- Draw with Ghana, get to two points, and finish second in the group, or
- Lose by fewer goals than Cote d'Ivoire lost to Ghana.
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Cote D' Ivoire
It is always tittilating to predict the demise of one of the teams viewed as a potential winner of the tournament… but i will be surprised if Ghana beat the Ivory Coast.. all Ivory Coast has to do is tie Ghana and they qualify . any of the other two teams will have to win to qualify..Burkina Faso cannot then afford to pack the backline with 10 players as they did against the Ivory Coast for 85 minutes out of the 90 minutes played.. Ghana has to attack to avoid a n early journey home
It is one think to bemoan the wasted scoring chances the Ivory Coast had.. but one real positive was how solid they were organized defensively.. their midfield with Yaya Toure and Tiote and Zokora was solid as well.. Drogba does not fail to score two games in a row and if the Coach decide to sit bakary Kone and bring in either Dindane or Kalou to partner Drogba and Gervinho upfront.. Ghana can be in for a long night on Friday.. Another positive for Ivory Coast is that for the upcoming WC.. This makes the task of selection easier..as he has seen that Ndri Romaric is the key creative midfielder they lacked on Monday and in attack Seydou Doumbia is a much better finisher than Bakary Kone who was aweful to say the least.. so i believe the Ivory will advance from this group and will find their grove especially when they start paying away from Cabinda
Energy In, Joy Out... Enjoy
Draw doesn't guarantee it
A triple draw would go to goals scored, and 0-0 isn’t a promising start there. If Ghana and Burkina Faso play the highest-scoring draw of the group, Ivory Coast is the odd team out in a three-way tie. (And at least one of the other two – most likely Ghana – will be able to draw in even at a low score should Ivory Coast-Ghana end in a draw.)
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