Cup of Nations Preview: Group D

Across the three sets of rankings we reference, Cameroon is the footballing team in Africa with the highest regard.  They are ranked no lower than 18 (Elo) and go as high as 11 (FIFA).  Their chances in South Africa 2010 are better than other rankings portend.

At the Cup of Nations, Cameroon avoids the trials handed to Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana - the other African titans - in being handed an easier group.

Nobody is overlooking Tunisia, the 2004 champions, but they are not the Elephants or Black Stars, and most would put them a step below Nigeria.  While the Eagles of Carthage are still favored to get out of this group, they give the Lions a relatively comfortable draw.

The aspirant of Group D if Gabon, who (like Burkina Faso with Cote d'Ivoire) got drawn in with their qualifying nemesis.  They need not overcome Cameroon to make the quarterfinals.  They are capable of pulling off a mild upset and pushing Tunisia out.

Rounding out the group is Zambia, a team with historical success in the tournament.  With a mix of very young players moving into the team to replace the veterans that have helped them qualify for this tournament four times in the last decade, Zambia is in a transition that has seen them have a terrible time finding goals.

Starting play on Wednesday in Lubango, here is World Soccer Digest's break-down of Cup of Nation's Group D:

Cameroon

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 18/11/15

World Cup Qualifying performance:  After a slow start, Cameroon ended-up comfortably winning Group A, going 4-1-1 with nine goals scored and only two allowed.  In second round qualifying, the Lions got an easy group where the next most difficult team was Cape Verde.  They went 5-1-0 with a 14/2 goals ratio.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  Cameroon have won this tournament four times including back-to-back championships in 2000 and 2002.  The last time they failed to get out of group stage was 1996.  They finished second in Ghana in 2008

History, World Cup(s):  Has qualified for six of the last eight World Cups, including a quarterfinals appearance in 1990.

Coach:  Paul Le Guen has a a successful coaching history in France with Olympique Lyonnais, Paris St. Germain and Stade Rennais.  He also briefly coached Rangers in Scotland.  Cameroon is his first international coaching job.  

Key Players: Samuel Eto'o (28, F, Internazionale, Italy), Carlos Kameni (25, G, Espanyol, Spain), Alexandre Song (22, M, Arsenal, England), Jean Makoun (26, M, Olympique Lyonnais), Stéphane Mbia (23, M, Marseille, France)

Key Absences:  Sébastien Bassong (23, D, Tottenham Hotspur, England)

The impending roar of a Lion:  Cameroon is one of the trio to African nations that are looked at as contenders in both the Cup of Nations and the World Cup, but the hiring of Paul Le Guen might distinguish then from their competitors.  The accomplished French club coach took over the team after two matches in third round qualifying, when they were last in Group A.  The Indomitable Lions quickly surged to the top of the group displaying a tactical discipline more readily associated with club football.  That discipline could make them less susceptible to upset, more likely to get points where they might otherwise not.

Gabon

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 93/48/55

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Gabon was the loser in Cameroon's Le Guen hire.  Leading Group A at the time Cameroon brought their new coach in, Gabon had a back-to-back with the Lions needing only one point to maintain in the driver's seat atop the group.  They lost both matches.

The Black Panthers would finish 3-0-3 in Group A, four points behind the Lions, with a 9/7 goal ratio.  In second round qualifying, the finished in a three-way tied atop Group 5, finishing second after tiebreakers with Ghana and Libya.  They posted a 4-0-2 record in the second round with a 8/3 goals ratio.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  Gabon has qualified for the first time since 2000.  The only time they've gotten out of group play was 1996.  In 2012, they will co-host the tournament with Equatorial Guinea.

History, World Cup(s):  Gabon has never qualified for the World Cup.

Coach:  Alain Griresse is a 57-year-old Frenchman whose main coaching experience comes from two stints with Toulouse in France.  Before his job with Gabon, he was the coach of the Georgian national team.

Key Players: Didier Ovono (31, G, Le Mans, France), Roguy Méyé (23, F, Ankaragucu, Turkey), Cédric Moumamba (30, M, Dhofar, Oman), Rodrigue Moundounga (27, D, AS Mangasport, Gabon), Georges Ambourouet (23, D, Makedonija, Macedonia), Daniel Cousin (32, F, Hull City, England)

The silent Panthers' prowl:  A common theme in their previews is good team, no notice.  Gabon fits that description perfectly.  Because they have never qualified for a World Cup or had success in the Cup of Nations, there is an implicit assumption that there is a gap between them and a nation like Tunisia that has won a major title.  While there may be a gap (there are almost always gaps), the span is not as large as perceived.  Gabon has the talent to get out of this group, and their qualifying record hints at the ability to use it.

Tunisia

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 54/53/45

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Tunisia went into the final match of World Cup qualifying at the top of Group B only to lose in Mozambique and be passed by Nigeria.  To that point, they had been the best team of the group, a status they showed with a dramatic draw in Nigeria to take control of the quartet.  They would ultimately finish second, going 3-2-1, posting a 7/4 goals ratio.

In second round qualifying, Tunisia again had a close second place finish.  While going 4-1-1, they lost their group to Burkina Faso, though they posted a 11/3 goals ratio.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  As the host nation Tunisia won this tournament in 2004.  They have made it out of group stage in each of the last two tournaments.  They have qualified for every Cup of Nations since 1992, a run that includes a second place finish in 1996.

History, World Cup(s):  Tunisia has qualified for four World Cups.  The 2010 tournament will be the first one they have missed since 1998.  They have never gotten out of a World Cup group, and they have not won a finals match since 1978, their first appearance.

Coach:  Faouzi Benzarti is a 60-year-old Tunisia who came into the national team last year after previously coaching Libya.  He is now in his fifth decade of coaching, a span which has been spent mostly in the Tunisian domestic league.

Key Players: Karim Haggui (25, D, Hannover 96, Germany), Hocine Ragued (26, M, Slavia Prague, Czech Republic), Issam Jemaa (25, F, Lens, France), Oussama Darragi (22, M, Espérance St, Tunisia), Khaled Souissi (24, D, Club Africain, Tunisia), Amine Chermiti (22, F, Al-Ittihad, Saudi Arabia)

Eagles need to hunt: Where the continued development of many African sides often manifests as a lack of organization, Tunisia is one of the more well organized teams in the tournament.  The question for the Eagles of Carthage is whether they can find goals.  They scored just over one per match in third round qualifying, a statistic that could be an artifact of their group.  If it is or Tunisia can find more goals, they become a threat to win the tournament.

Zambia

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 79/84/86

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Zambia went 1-2-3 in Group C, finishing well behind Algeria and Egypt in what now looks like the weakest of the five third round groups.  While they allowed only five goals, they scored only two.  They were shutout in their final four qualifiers.

In second round qualifying, they were drawn into a three team group with Togo and Swaziland, going 2-1-1.  They allowed only one goal while scoring two.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  With the exception of 2004, Zambia has appeared in every Cup of Nations since 1988.  In the four tournaments held between 1990 and 1996, they made it to at least the quarterfinals each year, though they have failed to do so since.  

History, World Cup(s):  Zambia has never qualified for the World Cup.

Coach:  Hervé Renard is a 41-year-old French coach who has been with Zambia for a year-and-a-half.  He has club experience in England and France.  Before joining Zambia, Renard was an assistant with Ghana.

Key Players: Christopher Katongo (27, M, Armenia Bielefeld, Germany), Rainford Kalaba (23, M, União de Leiria, Portugal), Emmanuel Mbola (16, D, Pyunik, Armenia), Kennedy Mweene (25, G, Free State Stars, South Africa), Dennis Banda (21, D, Green Buffaloes, Zambia), Joseph Musonda (32, D, Golden Arrows, South Africa)

Bullets missing targets:  It's difficult to see where Zambia gets goals in this group.  Already with trouble getting on the board, a draw of Cameroon, Tunisia and then Gabon out of Pot C was poor luck.  There are teams in this tournament against whom Zambia could steal an odd goal, but against this trio, they could go scoreless

Worthless Predictions

January 13, Lubango:  Cameroon 2, Gabon 0 - Gabon is capable of getting a draw here, but based on what we saw in Group A qualifying, we have to think Cameroon the heavy favorite.

January 13, Lubango:  Tunisia 1, Zambia 0 - This could be a scoreless draw, with Tunisia having their own difficulties scoring goals.  I like the Eagles to find one, though.

January 17, Lubango:  Gabon 1, Tunisia 1 - If I'm giving Tunisia the benefit of the doubt in their January 13 match, I'm giving the same to Gabon here.  I don't think the difference between Tunisia and Gabon is so significant that the neutral site and the differences between playing in northern and southern Africa won't have an effect.

January 17, Lubango:  Cameroon 2, Zambia 0 - This one could get uglier, but Cameroon stays in level-headed and puts in a dominant, workman like victory.  The match is far more lopsided than the score.

January 21, Banguela:  Gabon 1, Zambia 0 - Their chances to advance still alive, Gabon finds one goal and hopes for a Tunisia upset.

January 21, Lubango:  Cameroon 1, Tunisia 1 - After some early contention, this ends up playing out as a handshake, as neither team wants to risk losing the match.  Cameroon wants first place, while Tunisia just wants to advance.  The order of matches ends up sinking Gabon.