Egypt Continues to Exhibit Primacy

There will be only one team that finishes group play with a one hundred percent record.  It's the same team that has won the last two Cup of Nations, the same team that has not qualified for a World Cup since 1990.

After the Pharaohs jumped on Benin early in Egypt's 2-0 Wednesday win, predictions of their demise seemed even more foolish.  Citing their World Cup qualifying results, their age - no enough people cited their mysterious, recent ability to just win this tournament.  Only one-out-of-ten participants in this site's pre-CAN poll saw Egypt as the tournament's likely winner.

Today, Egypt had a match they could take off.  There was no reward in winning.  They clinched the group on Saturday with their win over Mozambique.  But like a machine, the Pharaohs jumped on Benin and cruised to their nine points.

Egypt is the best team in this tournament.  Are they going to win it?  Who knows, given the variance of knock-out formats, but my pounds are on the Pharaohs.

They go through from Group C along with Nigeria, whose 3-0 win over Mozambique puts them into the quarters.  Peter Odemwingie, who was held out of the starting XI for Nigeria's opening loss to Egypt, had the Super Eagles' first two goals.  Obafemi Martins, who temporarily left the team amidst rumors of a tournament-ending shin injury, came in late for the final goal.

Despite the result, Nigeria - an early favorite of some - has disappointed those who picked them to win the tournament.  Getting production from Odemwingie, Martins, and Yakubu Ayeg Beni (who had an assist) gives Nigerians a reason for hope, but lackluster performances in two of the three Group C matches leaves the Eagles less-than-Super.

Here's how Group C finished.  After the jump, we'll look forward to Thursday's matches.

Here is Group D:

Gabon leads Group D with four points, having gotten through matches with Cameroon and Tunisia without allowing a goal.  

With a win, they finish first and get Nigeria.  A draw leaves them susceptible to a match-up with Egypt (though they will be through, and could still win the group).  Even with a loss, they could go through, but against what was thought to be the weakest them in the group, Gabon is the favorite to secure their match with Nigeria.

Zambia can not be taken lightly.  They got a 1-1 draw against Tunisia to open their tournament and followed that with a scare of Cameroon, drawing them at 2-2 until the match's final minutes.  

What's remarkable about the Chipolopolo is their goal scoring, having gotten three goals in two matches after garnering only four in 10 qualifiers.  While some of their scoring may have been lucky (Rigobert Song's inexplicable header that eventually led to Zambia's first goal against Cameroon), a draw is within their abilities.

My only concern:  Zambia's need to go for a win could expose what has been (through qualifying) a good defense.  If they get three points, they could still be out if Cameroon and Tunisia tie, creating a three-way-tie atop the group.  In that scenario, we team will have earned three points against the others.  Goal differential becomes the next tiebreaker.

But the big match tomorrow will be Cameroon and Tunisia.  These two teams were the picks to make it out of Group D.  Now, only one can advance.

Cameroon goes through with a win.  A draw, and they go through clean with a Gabon win.

Tunisia must win to go through.

The Indomitable Lions are the more talented side, though given neither team has played to their capabilities (possibly a debatable statement concerning Tunisia), the match ma be decided in favor of the team that can find most of the form before tomorrow's kickoff.

Cameroon must also be concerned about a defense that has been mistake-prone.  Particularly as it concerns Rigobert Song, the Lions may have to play Jean Il Makoun or Stéphane Mbia deeper in order to protect their central defense.

Tunisia is capable in the counter.  As Cameroon moves forward, the Lions could leave their struggle defenders without the necessary support as the Eagles of Carthage break out.  If Tunisia gets the first goal, the Cameroon team that could not beak-down Gabon will struggle.  

Paul La Guen's task is the obvious:  Get the Lions playing closer their potential.