Manucho Gonçalves is the captain and most dangerous player for host squad Angola. (Photo: Flickr/Terux)

View full size photo »

Group A was destined to be the weakest of the four Cup of Nations groups by virtue of hosts Angola being the seeded/Pot A team.  Thankfully, that cost was part of a trade-off that gives us (arguably) the tournament's most competitive group, where a case can be made for any of the four nations to advance to the quarterfinals.

Algeria has become the name nation (by virtue of qualifying for the World Cup), but Mali has the talent as well as more historical success in this tournament, while Malawi showed improvement throughout qualifying.

For a group which, in a vacuum, appears to have two strong and two lesser sides, the key to this group's depth could be the the host nation's advantages.  Angola did not qualify for the final round of World Cup Qualifying (and would not have made this tournament were they not hosting), but the benefits of hosting plus the return of key players will allow them to threaten for second place.

With the first game of group play scheduled for Sunday, here is a breakdown of Group A:

picture:  Madjid Bougherra (Photo: Flickr/Dekdroit) 

Algeria

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 57/26/46

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Algeria won Group C with a dramatic playoff victory over rival Egypt, a 1-0 affair in Khartoum played three days after losing in Cairo (2-0) after their bus was attacked outside their hotel (multiple players had to play the match with bandaged heads after being hit with bricks thrown through bus windows).  In the third round, Algeria went 4-1-1 with a 9 goals for, 4 allowed.  They barely won a tough Group 6 in the second round, need a point their last match (in Liberia) to hold-off Gambia and Senegal.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  Failed to qualify for the 2006 and 2008 tournaments.  At ACN 2004 in Tunisia, lost in the quarter-finals.

History, World Cup(s):  Have not appeared in a World Cup since 1986 and have never made it out of a group.

Coach:  Rabah Saadane, a 63-year-old, native Algerian who was the coach in 1986.  This is his fifth stint as coach of the national team.

Key Players: Madjid Bougherra (27, D, Rangers, Scotland), Nadir Belhadj (27, D Portsmouth, England), Anthar Yahia (27, D, Bochum, Germany), Karim Ziani (27, M, Wolfsburg, Germany), captain Yazid Mansouri (31, M, Lorient, France), Rafik Saïfi (34, F, Al-Khor, Qatar).

Key Absences: Kamel Ghilas (25, F, Hull City, England)

Foxes at their peak:  Algeria has a group of players at the prime of their careers.  This is most evident in defense.  A back line that leaked only eight goals in 12 qualifiers in anchored by three quality 27-year-olds.  In the middle, Ziani has had trouble getting consistent time at Wolfsburg, but he can still be a difference maker on a team that lacks options in attack.  With reports of conflict between coach and players, Algeria may be ripe of an upset.

pictured:  Zé Kalanga (Photo:  Flickr/onlystardust)

Angola

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 87/95/68

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Despite being in the "seeded" pot for the second round of African qualifying, Angola finished second behind Benin in Group 3 and failed to qualify as a second place finisher.  They went 3-1-2 but were undone by getting only one point in two matches against third place Uganda.  In Africa qualifying where you have only a sample of six matches to make your mark, one slip can derail your entire qualifying run, especially if you happen to missing one of your best players (Manucho).

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  This is Angola's third consecutive ACN qualification.  In Ghana (2008), they made it to the quarterfinals, while they failed to make it our of their group in Egypt (2006).

History, World Cup(s):  Angola qualified for Germany 2006 but got only one point in group play.

Coach:  Portuguese Manuel José, an accomplished club manager whose had his greatest success at Al-Ahly in Egypt (but who doesn't succeed there?).  He has also had stints at Benfica (Portugal), Sporting CP (Portugal), Braga (Portugal) and most successfully, Boavista (again, Portugal).

Key Players: Captain Manucho (26, F, Real Valladolid, Spain) and Flávio Amado (30, F, Al-Shabbab, Saudi Arabia) up-top, André Macanga (31, M, Al Kuwait Kaifan, Kuwait), Ze Kalanga (26, M, Dinamo Bucharest, Romania) and Sebastião Gilberto (27, M, Al-Ahly, Egypt) in midfield, Kali (29, D, AC Arles-Arvignon, France), Yamba Asha (33, D, 53, Petro Atlético, Angola), Lamá (28, G, Petro Atlético).

Herding the Antelopes: It's difficult to tell what we'll get from Angola since they have only been playing friendlies in the last year, but their last two performances (draw with Gambia, loss to Estonia) have not inspired confidence.  They performed well in second round qualifying without Manucho (good for a goal every two matches during his international career, but played only once in qualifying).  They seem a team capable of playing beyond their rankings, with poor defending being the reason Angola could miss the quarterfinals.

picture:  Chiukepo Msowoya (Photo: Daylife) 

Malawi

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 117/99/116

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Finished third in Group E, going 1-1-4 along the way.  They allowed 11 goals and scored only four, but in the last two rounds (matches against Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso) they got one point with 1 GF/ 2 GA.  Compared to the reverse fixtures where the they got no points and had a -6 differential, Malawi showed improvement.  In the second round of qualifying, they went 4-0-2 in Group 12, posting 14 goals to 5 allowed in finishing second, advancing as one of the eight best second place teams.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  This is the first time they've qualified since 1984 after missing twelve consecutive tournaments.  It's only the second time they've ever qualified.

History, World Cup(s):  Have never qualified.

Coach:  Kinnah Phiri, a 56-year-old former Malawi national team member.

Key Players: Swadick Sanudi (26, GK, Dynamos, South Africa), captain Peter Mponda (28, D, Black Leopards, South Africa), James Sangala (23, D, Primeiro de Augusto, Angola), Moses Chavula (24, D, Nathi Lions, South Africa), Allan Kamanga (28, D, Dynamos), Hellings Mwakasungula (29, M, Silver Strikers, Malawi), Chiukepo Msowoya (21, F, APR, Rwanda)

Flames try to rekindle flame: If you buy that Malawi improved throughout qualifying, they can get out of this group, a quartet that's much easier that Group E in World Cup Qualifying.  Their recent friendlies have yielded impressive results:  a draw with Ghana, a draw with Egypt, and a win over Mozambique.  If Chiukepo Mosowoya can build upon front summer performances, they could have the firepower to get out of the group.

picture:  Frederic Kanoute (Photo: Jasper Juinen/Getty Images)

Mali

World Rankings (Elo/FIFA/SPI): 63/47/49

World Cup Qualifying performance:  Finished with nine points but third place in Group C, going 2-3-1 with a eight goals for, seven allowed in finishing behind Ghana and Benin.  In second round qualifying, won Group 10 with 12 points, going 4-0-2 with 13 goals, allowing eight.

History, African Cup(s) of Nations:  Have qualified for four of the last five tournaments, making the semifinals in 2002 and 2004.

History, World Cup(s):  Despite continental success, Mali has never qualified for a World Cup.

Coach:  Stephen Keshi is a 47-year-old former Nigerian international whose previous coaching stints with Togo, taking them to Germany 2006.  He has been with Mali since April 2008.

Key Players: Captain Mahamadou Diarra (28, M, Real Madrid, Spain), Seydou Keita (19 ,M, Barcelona, Spain), Frédéric Kanouté (32 ,F, Sevilla, Spain), Mohamed Sissoko (24, M, Juventus, Italy), Souleymane Diamoutene (26, D, Bari, Italy), Adama Tamboura (24, D, Helsingborgs, Sweden)

Key Absences: Adama Coulibaly (29, D, Auxerre, France)

Eagles struggle to take off: Considering the talent of the Mali side, their inability to qualify for World Cups is puzzling.  Mali is not the only nation on the continent to exhibit that kind of dichotomy, and that is what makes CAN so interesting.  Mali the players to compete with anybody, and while picking them to win the tournament might be a reach, a case could be made.  A semifinals appearance would merely be meeting expectations. 

Worthless Predictions

January 10, Luanda:  Angola 2, Mali 2 - 1998 was the last time a host country lost an opening match.  Angola plays a style where they could given Mali trouble if they play with the requisite energy.  Mali drew all three of their third round, World Cup qualifiers

January 11, Luanda:  Algeria 1, Malawi 1 - There was something about how Malawi played in their last two qualifiers that impressed me.  Their second round qualifying my be a year ago, but it hints at a team that is better than they performed against two tough opponents in the third round.  While I don't think they have the quality to beat-down the Algerian defense, I like them to get a point.

January 14, Luanda:  Mali 2, Algeria 0 - Mali is too strong and athletic for Algeria, particularly through the midfield.  With only one point in two matches, Algeria forces people to look back at their third round qualifying group and wonder about its strength.

January 14, Luanda:  Angola 2, Malawi 1 - In front of their home crowd, Angola gets this one and stays with Mali at the top of their group.  The virtues of their seed (producing the easiest group) and home pitch advantage put them on en route to the quarterfinals.

January 18, Luanda:  Angola 1, Algeria 1 - With Malawi unlikely to get points against Mali, Algeria knows they can advance by beating the home team and winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.  Angola, however, is about to hold out for a draw and eliminate the group's highest rated side, forcing Algeria to consider to future of Saadane.

January 18, Cabinda:  Mali 3, Malawi 0 - The group's most talented team against it's least talented goes the way of the favorites, playing to win the group (though they likely face Cote d'Ivoire or Ghana, either way).  For Malawi, the tournament ends up being a learning experience.