Nicklas Bendtner thanks Andrei Arshavin, who had a critical part in two of the Dane's three Tuesday goals. (Photo: ZumaPress)

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I was almost 0-for-2 with my UEFA Champions League picks yesterday.  Then Arjen Robben's left foot saved my analyst's credibility, a remarkable achievement considering a.) it's a foot, and b.) it saved something that doesn't exist!

That's not to say I'm happy Bayern went through, though.  They advanced over Fiorentina, 4-4 on away goals thanks to an Arjen Robben wonder strike.

In truth, I'm neither sad nor happy, but I feel a ping of injustice that Fiorentina coach Cesare Prandelli - who had his tactics spot-on throughout all 180 minutes of his tie with Bayern - is out of Champions League.

What do I mean what I say "had his tactics spot-on?"  You want that explained?  

Oh, man.  I thought that was the type of thing I was just allowed to say without the need to justify it.

But OK, I'll give it a shot:

Yesterday's match in Florence saw Fiorentina play into Bayern's approach by conceding both flanks while reinforcing the middle.  This led to the impression that Bayern was controlling the match, with left wing Franck Ribery and right wing Arjen Robben able to easily get into the attacking third down the flanks.

But as you watched Fiorentina you saw a very compact shape at the back, with holding midfielders Cristiano Zanetti and Riccardo Montolivo reinforcing the back while preventing Bayern's talented wingers from cutting back toward the middle of the pitch.    Particularly after getting an early goal (and the lead) from Juan Vargas, this approach forced Munich to open-up and create openings for Fiorentina counters.  Nineteen minutes into the second half, La Viola was up 3-1 in the match, 4-3 on aggregate.

To Bayern's credit, they converted the few second half chances they had, and they were not particularly good ones.

For their first goal (Mark van Bommel, 60'), Franck Ribèry took advantage of a mistake from the Zanetti-Montolivo tandem, was able to get to the middle from the left and lay-off a ball for van Bommel.  The Dutch midfielder opens his foot onto a ball and got a wind-aided goal from 24 meters.

The wind also played a part on Arjen Robben's goal.  For Sebastien Fréy - used to the ball coming at a certain speed - the strong tail wind on each of Bayern's goal could have been the difference.  Sometimes, it really is a game of inches, and with a strong wind behind a shot, those inches become more difficult to read.  Great shots become perfectly unstoppable.

But if you're a coach and you put in a plan where the other team gets two goals from 24 meters and those (in addition to one good chance in the first half) are the only scoring opportunities you yield, that's indicative of a pretty good plan.  Alas for Cesare Prandelli, it was also a losing plan thanks to two win aided goals, a suspect penalty call and an offsides goal (the last two coming in the first leg).

Bayern goes through, Fiorentina is eliminated, and it is on us to remember how the tie really unfolded.

In the other UEFA Champions League tie decided yesterday, FC Porto put on their worst display since ascending to the forefront of European football in 2002-03.  They allowed five goals at the Emirates to Arsenal, a few with headshakingly poor defending.  Combine that with command performances from Andrei Arshavin and Samir Nasri and you get a 5-0 result for the Gunners.

Arsenal deserves credit for a strong performance.  Without Cesc Fabregas, they showed me that they still have the creative players needed to make a hat trick for Nicklas Bendtner or fabricate a rare goal for Emmanuel Eboué.

Don't anoint Arsenal as England or European favorites just yet.  Porto was unexpectedly and (in this modern era of Porto futebol) unprecedentedly bad.  Yesterday was less about Arsenal's ascendancy than a potential end of an era for Porto, who may not be back in Champions League next year, given their trials in the Liga Sagres.

Previews, Wednesday's Champions League

I'm going to sound like a broken record, because I've been sounding this tune since these two teams were drawn together:

Unless Milan can find a solution to the left side of their defense (the right flank of Manchester United's attack), I don't think they can been Manchester United.  They couldn't find that solution at the San Siro, and despite a memorable performance from Ronaldinho, they lost 3-2.  They lost because Antonio Valencia could not be stopped, leading to two Wayne Rooney second half headers.

Milan could try to out-score United, but the Red Devil defense should have Nemanja Vidic back after the Serbian missed the first leg.  They will, however, be without a suspended Michael Carrick, who picked up his first career red card in Italy.

Whether Leonardo can find some way to slow down United on their right flank could determine whether Milan has a chance or this gets ugly.  If the first year Brazilian coach responds, Milan could find the two goals they need, especially if Pato (a doubt) starts.

Else, the aggregate on this match could end up 5-2 for United.

In Spain, Real Madrid needs to turn around a 1-0 deficit at the Santiago Bernabeu against Olympique Lyonnais.  In the first match, Madrid fell to a Jean Makoun song, though they were outplayed throughout.  Fortunately for the Madridistas, the result was less about Lyon greatness and more about los Blancos playing as poor a match as they've played in 2010.  Kaká and Esteban Granero were lost.  They couldn't find Cristiano Ronaldo.  An uncharacteristic Xabi Alonso giveaway gifted Makoun a goal.

Particularly considering this weekend's comeback against Sevilla, it is fair to think Real Madrid has the right mentality not to let this tie slip away.  Independent of the two sides' talent, a 1-0 loss on the road, in the first leg, is not bad.  Against a Lyon side that could not score this weekend at Ligue 1's 17th place Boulogne, a clean sheet is a reasonable goal.

If I sound down on Lyon, please excuse me, except my apology, as I've been burned too many times.  I liked Lyon at the beginning of this season, claimed they would make the Champions League semis as well as reclaim Ligue 1.  I loved their depth, I'm a big advocate of what Lisandro López does for a club, and I thought their ability to dramatically make mid-match adjustments to their attack would serve them well in close matches against the Bordeauxs and Marseilles of the world.

But in the face of results, I can't pridefully stick to my pick.  Lyon has not impressed since October.  Their Champions League group now looks weak, and they couldn't even beat out Fiorentina.  They should be doing better in France as Bordeaux seems intent on keeping them, Montpelier, Marseille, Lille, and (now) Auxerre around.  Yet Claude Puel has failed to get this team to accept their capabilities.

Perhaps today, at the Bernabeu, that changes, but when I look at a consistently underperforming Lyon side in contrast to a Real Madrid side that's capable of staging late, three goal comebacks against talented, Champions League-caliber sides, my choice is easy.

More

• The Set Piece Analysts' Wednesday podcast features a lot of my thoughts on yesterday's results, today's matches ... provided I managed to force them out coherently.
• Yesterday there was a lot of action in the comments, but today I'll be following the match in a fanpost.