Ten Matches to Watch: Europe

With apologies to Spartak Moscow's hosting of Lokomotiv Moskow, here are my ten matches to watch in Europe this weekend:

We have spent a lot of time talking about the tight race in France, but that's nothing compared to Romania's race (and the difference between Romania and France, quality-wise, is not as large as you would think).  There are six teams within two points of the lead in Romania, with the fourth and fifth place teams meeting thsi weekend.

Unirea Urziceni is known to mots for having competing n this year's Champions League.  They have lost only once in league since October, but a string of four draws in their last five have them sitting fifth.  Now out of Europa, their focus on the Liga could be the difference, with eleven matches remaining.

They welcome a Dinamo team that has won two in a row and is undefeated in nine, a string that includes results against CFR Cluj, Steaua, and Vaslui.

Dimano will be without leading scorer Anrei Cristea, who saw red in their 3-2 at Otelul Galati.  Cristea had three goals in four.

The Lionel Messi show took a match off midweek against Osasuna, good news for Barcelona, who were desperate to know that somebody besides their Argentine star was capable of finding net.  For the second match in a row, Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored, and if there was one player Barça needed goals from, it was their Swedish striker.

Mallorca has taken advantage of struggles from Sevilla, Atletico Madrid and Villareal to sit fourth in the league, a place built upon their remarkable home form.  That is what makes this match interesting.  

At the Nou Camp, this match wouldn't sniff this list.  In the middle of the Mediterranean, the match carries another dimension.

Gervinho returned last week for Lille, an addition that could vault Lille back into the title race.  Now sitting fifth, Lille has had to go a spell without their best player, a spell that started short after they had pulled themselves into the title race.  The league's most prolific scorers, they have the talent to win the league.

To do so, they need to knock-off one of their chief competitors:  Montpellier, who sit second in the league, even on points with league leading Bordeaux.

Though the first half of the season, Rene Girard did a good job managing a mediocre team toward the top of the league.  Now Montepellier's form is starting to match their league standing.

A win on the road at Lille would punctuate their rise form promoted side to title threat, and with Bordeaux getting another weekend off to prepare for Champions League, Montpellier need only a draw to go op in France.

For the first time this season, Dyanmo's defense is in doubt after last week's surprising last at relegation-battling Zakarpattia Uzkkorod.

They come home to face a Metalist side that has been tipped as the team that could break the top two's cartel.  

Six points behind Dynamo with nine to play, that could still happen this season, though the last time Metalist had a chance to take a scalp, they failed to get a result last month from Shakhtar Donetsk.

Chelsea climbed back within a point of Manchester United with heir midweek win at Portsmouth.  Returning to Stamford Bridge they face a severe upturn in opposition when Aston Villa visits.

Chelsea is without the first choice at right and left back and will also be missing Branislav Invanovic and Ricardo Carvalho.  Add in the continued absence of Michael Essien and the back is in shambles.

Against a Villa team with strong, fast wing play who they lost to earlier this year, don't be surprised t see Martin O'Neill get a result.

Regardless, this match will serve as prelude to the team's April 10th meting at Wembley in the FA Cup semifinals.

After the jump, my top five matches on the Europa docket, which are hinted at in the poll:

Real Madrid continues their tour of local rivals against the Atleti, having defeated Getafe 4-2 mid-week.

With ten goals in three games since their Champions League elimination, Real Madrid appears to have regained focus, even if they have not kept a clean sheet in seven matches.

That defensive record will have to ind a way through Diego Forlan, Sergio Aguero, and an Atletico team that has quietly put itself into eighth place on the edge of European qualification (had their appearance in the Copa del Rey final not all-but assured they would get there regardless).

Forlan has quietly found his stride and is now up to 14 goals, having second four in the team's last five league matches.

But it's doubtful he and Aguero can win a shoot-out against their intra-city rivals.

Bayern Munich's return to earth has left the door open for Leverkusen and Schalke, though don't tell Felix Magath's men that after Schalke was eliminated from the Pokal (German Cup) midweek.  In league, they remain one opint behind München with seven matches left, Leverkusen two points behind them.

Should Leverkusen lose at the BayArena on Saturday, they would have to shift focus from the race for first to maintaining the last Champions League spot.  Coming off a 3-0 win to fourth place Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen's lead over fourht is down to five.  A loss to Schalke combined with a Dortmund win at Berlin means Leverkusen will be closer to fourth than second, let alone fourth.

Over the lsat month, Schalke has steadily gained on first place, quelling any notion that they are too young to win the league.  They have 10 points from their last four matches.  Munich has only seven, while Levekusen as four.  If that pace maintains, Schalke will have their first top division title in over fifty years.

Their task will be easier without Stefan Kießling. The league's leadnig scorer will be out for Leverkusen, leaving Jupp Heynckes to hope for a return to form from Patrick Helmes, who has gone from 21 goals last season to one this year.

The Portuguese league returns after a one week absence for the League Cup final, won convincingly by Benfica, 3-0 over Porto.  With a win on Saturday over second place Braga, Benfica will take a stranglehold on their quest for a double (with a Europa Cup treble still possible).

Braga enters the match three points back of Benfica, having struggled over the last month of play.  That patch started at the end of February, with a 5-1 loss to Porto representing over one-third of the goals they've given up this year.  Two weeks ago, Braga was drawn at Vitoria Setubal.  

Where Benfica has dropped points in only five matches this season, those two stumbles by Braga may have decided the title.

That is why Braga needs to win in Lisbon on Saturday.  While a draw would be an accomplishment, it would not be a productive result.  Waiting for Benfica to drop points is waiting to win second place.

Braga will need to replicate their 2-0 October win or consider this race over.

Last weekend's clash between Manchester United and Liverpool may rank with Barcelona-Real Madrid as the greatest club rivalries in Europe, if you restricted the conversation to local derbies, Galatasaray and Fenerbahce would lead the discussion. 

Fenerbahce won the season's first meeting 3-1 at a time when the Canaries held first palce and a cushion atop the league.  since then Christoph Daum's return has been troubled.  It's taken seven points in their last three matches to climb back to third place, one point behind Gala and five points behind Bursaspor.

Galatasaray is coming off a loss to Trabzonspor and have only two wins in five, a run that has cost Frank Rijkaard's talented team first place.  Star midfielder Adan Turan should give Gala a boost with his expected return from injury.

On the Guardian's Football Weekly podcast, a pundit noted that it had been four years since Internazionale sat anything but top of the table in the season's second half.  My initial reaction:  I thought it was longer.  Ah, the halcyon days before Calciopoli.

Unfortunately for Romanistas (and Milanistas), Inter will be atop the table come Sunday regardless of this match's outcome.  Thanks to midweek results, the Nerazzurri are back to a four point lead.  With eight matches remaining in the season, a win would bring a fatalism to Roma's title hopes.

Francesco Totti is supposed to be back for Roma, meaning both teams are close to full health. 

The teams drew earlier this year at the San Siro, and if Inter's performances in this seasons' must-win matches are any indication, that's the minimum result we should expect from the champions.