UEFA Champions League: Inter Hosts CSKA, Barcelona at Arsenal

After Manchester United's fall in Germany yesterday, talking with certain about Wednesday's matches seems far-sighted.  But credit to Bayern Munich for playing a great game at the Allianz Arena and credit to the reader for understanding the nature of that "upset."

It's to that understanding I note Wednesday wins by either Arsenal or CSKA Moscow would be even more surprising. Taking a step back, Manchester United was going to a traditional European power in the first leg of a two-legged tie.  Their loss was surprising because we had become accustomed to the notion the Red Devils would again be Barcelona's biggest challenge to Europe's crown.

Internazionale does not carry those expectations, but because of the perceived talent gap between them and CSKA Moscow, the fact that no Russian team has made it this far in Champions League, and the location of today's match (Milan), people's minds may be blown should Leonid Slutsky's side take a lead back to Moscow. (More detail on this match at SPA)

Barcelona does carry expectations, but the surprise of their potential loss would be less about defying those expectations than about Arsenal winning a like-for-like battle.

More on that, after the jump, but first, your picks.

Last year's competition in La Liga pridefully tried to play football with Barcelona.  The result was a historically successful season for the Blaugrana.  This year, teams in Spain are being more conservative, and while the Barcelona's bottom line (wins and losses) has not changed, the buzz saw has slowed to the point the people wonder if this Barcelona team is as good as last year's.

Look to the competition's tactics if you want an answer to that, and if you still have doubt, consider the improvement of Lionel Messi, Gerard Pique, Sergei Busquests, Seydou Keita, Pedro, as well as the improved health of Andres Iniesta (um, Richard - he's injured for today's match).  There's also the upgrade from Samuel Eto'o to Zlatan Ibrahimovic.  It's difficult to argue Barcelona is not as good as last year's team.

That's the squad that goes to the Emirates to face Arsenal on Wednesday in what many expect to be a like-for-like battle.  If Arsène Wenger's willing to engage in that battle, Arsenal may look like many of the La Liga challengers who, like Real Madrid losing 6-2 at the end of last season, fell. If Arsenal plays more conservatively, they are not only playing a style different than the one they're used to, but they limit their chance to take advantage of the first leg at home.  The Gunners need goals.  Ideally, they would take a two goal advantage back to the Nou Camp.  That's a difficult task to accomplish if you bunker.

Before I leave you to today's matches, something about Lyon's 3-1 win over Bordeaux.  Lisandro López had a brace thanks to a late penalty but looks to miss next match with a yellow card accumulation suspension.  How much that will matter depends on whether Bordeaux can defend better than they did Tuesday.  Against that performance, Lyon's Bafetimbi Gomis will be sufficient to push the Girondins.

But yesterday's performance highlighted the perils of Bordeaux's adopted style.  López got an early goal, Marouane Chamahk equalized, but by the time surprise started Michel Bastos put Lyonnais ahead before half, the match had opened up, and Bordeaux seems to lack the tools to keep up.  Their main tact seems to be crossing from the attack's right to Chamakh, something that almost paid off about ten minutes into the second half.  

Lyon stayed compact at the back, didn't send Aly Cissokho out to pressure the cross, and baited Bordeaux into settling for that play. Down two goals going into next week's second leg, Bordeaux is going to have to create better chances.  Whether that be fighting to cross from deeper, better positions or finding a more creative way to attack, successive 3-1 losses necessitate tweaks.